Latest time-dependent that the coupled ocean and atmospheric components, have delivered more reliable estimates, the most significant results show:
- An average global warming of 0.3 ° C per decade, assuming non-interventionist policies.
- A natural variability of approximately 0.3 ° C in global surface air temperatures on a scale of decades.
- Changes in regional patterns of temperature and precipitation are similar to equilibrium experiments.
Although the CGM models provide more detailed simulations of future climate change, computational constraints prevent them from being used in sensitivity studies to investigate potential future defects in the real world with respect to emissions of greenhouse gases.
Using the sensitivities of "best guess" scenarios are generated which give a range of warming between 1.5 and 3.5 ° C by 2100. Under conditions without intervention, the average global surface temperature is estimated increase between 2 and 4 ° C in the next 100 years. Even the most optimistic projections for the accumulation of greenhouse gases, can not prevent a significant change in the global climate of the next century. In the worst scenarios, global average surface temperature could increase by 6 ° C by 2100.
In conclusion, the average global temperature could increase between 2 and 4 ° C by 2100 if global development continues at the current pace. If it incorporates the influence of atmospheric aerosols to the model, warming decreases to about 0.2 ° C per decade over the next 100 years. This rate of climate change, yet is faster than at any other time in Earth's history. If nations do not act, the world may experience many adverse impacts as a result of global warming future. |
